The DIY Economist

Well it has been an interesting week so far. SPX is smack dab at 920 after gapping up today. Some consolidation, then we go back to 875? It's even possible we go test the June high if bullish momentum is enough with earnings and all that. ABT reports higher earnings but gets slammed - down 5% ...

I think I am beginning to come up with a more satisfactory explanation of efficient markets. Quite simply: The degree of market inefficiencies are directly correlated with the time span in consideration. Reading this, made me wonder: how come prolonged long-run inefficiencies exist in a market that is "efficient"? Why do leveraged and inverse ETFs increase ...

(Pure speculation follows) Recently, seekingalpha brought up the topic of the yield curve again, suggesting an end to the recession in 2010. "Unlikely", the trader sentiment shouts out, but consider the paper published by Federal Reserve Bank economists Arturo Estrella and Frederic S. Mishkin: Throughout the post WWII economy, every recession has been preceded by an ...

We have a breakout late day on Friday, and $NYSI ticked up. A EMA(5) cross is likely tomorrow for NYSI. I'm not second-guessing this market again, so long it is. I am long biotechs (which have underperformed in this rally as of date) with a gold hedge which may be removed next week.

Not content with the decline, we shot down and closed a hair below 885 (well, one point). I still believe a retest will come, possibly up to 920's or even 930. We do have a bearish cross on MACD and the NYSI looks like it is almost going to cross with its first down day in ...