The DIY Economist

After having flatlined at 1030 or so, we received a definite breakdown today. Even though I try to not let history be a guide, I just find this coincidence startling: 1. Market forms an ABC pattern in a channel (blue) 2. At the "C" point volume and range contract tremendously and a narrow, tight range is ...

With a gravestone doji today, certainly seems like it. (Goldman's target, if you're a contrarian, is 1060, not 1000, I believe.) My parents and I talked about systemic risk and CAPM today ... an interesting conversation. The gist of my mom's argument consisted of something like "taking nonsystemic risk is the only way to profits" or ...

I have updated this sparsely due to other obligations, but here goes. Fubared the UNG trade (set my limit too low) .. so I missed the huge 15% advance. MON continues to make new highs (grr) We got some pausing of the unstoppable upward momentum of the markets these past 2 days. Continue to hold VXX ...

(Pure speculation follows) Recently, seekingalpha brought up the topic of the yield curve again, suggesting an end to the recession in 2010. "Unlikely", the trader sentiment shouts out, but consider the paper published by Federal Reserve Bank economists Arturo Estrella and Frederic S. Mishkin: Throughout the post WWII economy, every recession has been preceded by an ...

Not content with the decline, we shot down and closed a hair below 885 (well, one point). I still believe a retest will come, possibly up to 920's or even 930. We do have a bearish cross on MACD and the NYSI looks like it is almost going to cross with its first down day in ...