The DIY Economist

I have updated this sparsely due to other obligations, but here goes. Fubared the UNG trade (set my limit too low) .. so I missed the huge 15% advance. MON continues to make new highs (grr) We got some pausing of the unstoppable upward momentum of the markets these past 2 days. Continue to hold VXX ...

So I sold VXX yesterday (yes I missed the top at 77, but oh well.) I wanted to buy more XBI at 47's, but was not confident that it would find a bottom at 47.02 (S2), so I did not accumulate. I hear 920 is a realistic target for a short-term recovery. The ever-crucial 875-877 level ...

A short post. Even though I believe that a correction will still come - eventually, I would use it as a buying opportunity. Long XBI and emerging markets. We have an interesting disparity in sentiment: Yahoo Finance / seekingalpha - (almost) universally negative - failure of capitalism and all that. Motley Fool - mixed AAII - ...

(Pure speculation follows) Recently, seekingalpha brought up the topic of the yield curve again, suggesting an end to the recession in 2010. "Unlikely", the trader sentiment shouts out, but consider the paper published by Federal Reserve Bank economists Arturo Estrella and Frederic S. Mishkin: Throughout the post WWII economy, every recession has been preceded by an ...

We corrected the correction with an up day today ... nothing out of the ordinary. NYSI crossed, confirming a bearish trend. So far the pullback has been minor. A retrace down to the low 800's is still likely.